In the past, technological change has been slow enough so that the largest part of the population could spend their career following one profession, more or less. From Benz’ first gasoline car in 1886 to Ford’s Model T in 1908, the first mass-produced car, there was enough time for all conservative horse carriage riders to retire, while the younger one’s quickly learned to drive cars instead. The impact would have been quite different if that change had happened in less than a decade, which is the speed of development we see today.

The horse carriage example is a good one, because it is still relevant today. Cab, truck, and train drivers will be some of the first jobs completely replaced by technology. However, there will not be a 30 year transition period. (It took the smartphone less than 10 years to make photo cameras, calculators, and even credit cards obsolete.) Once self-driving vehicles are “ready”, it will probably take 2-3 years to replace all drivers of any vehicle.

According to the Buereau of Labor Statistics, there were 305100 Taxi Drivers, Ride-Hailing Drivers and Chauffeurs in the US (United States Department of Labor, 2018). In China, there were 395800 cab drivers in Chinese cities in 2017 (statista, 2018). This doesn’t even count in all truck and train drivers and cab drivers in other countries. So within a couple of years, several million people will lose their job.

One could argue that governments will work for these jobs to be sustained in one way or another, but economically, there is no reason why someone would choose to ride with a driver instead of a machine, which is safer and cheaper. While young drivers will hopefully be able to retrain and find other jobs, how many drivers, who are half way to retirement, will be able to retrain and easily find jobs in other industries, where unskilled labor is also being replaced?

The drivers are just an example, which makes the problem clear. Many such industries will face the same problem. So while previous change allowed skills to be phased out over generations, future change will not allow enough time for that. It will be decisive for the decades to come, how society manages this change in pace.

Inequality is rarely good for democracy and society. If inequality becomes too big, revolution becomes likely. Will technological change create an ever increasing class of people left behind? If that is the case, prepare your shelter and start storing clean water. Revolution is coming.

While this is a complex issue and this article only looks at it in a simplistic way, there are two important consequences. First, the most important skill for people to stay in work will be to adapt. The US’ labor market is better suited for such changing environment with a more generalist labor force than, for example, Germany with a highly specialized labor force. Second, society needs to take care of the ones left behind. There will be an increasing group of people, which are past the point of adaptation. It is important to grow acceptance in society that these people have to be taken care of and everybody needs to pay their share to this in order to facilitate a working society.

Increasing transfer payments from the economically successful to the people left behind is supported by the power of capital, which automation brings. Once machines do all the labor, few people with capital will own the whole economy. Their profits will rise exponentially, which was previously divided within society. With that money not reaching society anymore, other transfer mechanisms need to be put in place.